
After Malcolm Todd’s “Earrings” topped Spotify’s daily US chart, the platform cut 500,000 streams from its total because numerous bets on the prediction market, Kalshi, were placed on the song reaching #1. According to Bloomberg, the removed streams were fraudulent, intended to raise the song's position in order for the bets to be paid out.
Why it matters:
Kalshi and other prediction markets have been under scrutiny for their ability to monetize literally any future event, including military operations.
Streaming numbers have a large effect on artists’ careers. Padding the numbers to make idle, external profits brings a new level of mistrust to the music industry.
The cost of purchasing fake streams is much less than the potential profit to be made on the desired outcome.
The scheme:
Financial Times reported that streams for “Earrings” increased by 70% in one day so the song could reach #1 by Monday, June 29.
When Spotify removed the 500,000 streams, the track fell to #4.
$3 million was placed on which song would stream the most on Spotify in June.
Kalshi already paid out the bettors before Spotify removed the streams.
What they said:
Kalshi: “We’re in touch with Spotify and are actively investigating this matter.”
Spotify: “All streaming services face ever-changing stream manipulation. Spotify has best-in-class detection and mitigation practices for manipulated streams, and we don’t pay out associated royalties.”
👋 Disclosures & Transparency Block
This article was written with information sourced from Music Business Worldwide.
We covered it because it represents the potential of how prediction markets can affect the music industry.












