MIDiA Report Signals 'Recalibration' for Global Music Industry

MIDiA has announced its annual music forecasts report, with the full 83-page report available to MIDiA clients here.

Key findings:

• By 2032, global recorded music revenues will be $110.8 billion in retail terms, made up of:

• Traditional revenues (streaming, physical, performance, downloads etc)

• Non-DSP streaming (TikTok etc)

• Expanded Rights (labels’ share of live, merch, branding etc)

• Label licensing revenue for audio visual content (documentaries, biopics etc)

• Production music

• Full representation of the long tail of independent artists and labels

• Label revenues excluding Expanded Rights will reach $51.2 billion by 2032.

• After a boom 2023, global music revenue growth slowed to 4.3% in 2024. This is in line with a decade-long recurring “oscillating growth pattern,” with strong growth years followed by weaker ones.

Recalibration:

• MIDiA has titled this year’s report ‘Recalibration’ as “everything points in this direction.” It highlights:

• New growth dynamics, with oscillation and slowing streaming “the new framework for the global market.”

• A shift away from the West, with close to four fifths of subscriber growth coming from non-Western markets, and China now the world’s fourth largest recorded music market.

• The growing influence and power of DSPs, with initiatives such as “bundling” reducing the royalty pot.

• A new outlook for ad supported streaming, with revenue flat in 2024, partly because more music videos were being monetized in YouTube Premium, and partly because advertisers were increasingly opting for the better targeting of podcast inventory versus music.

• The rapid rise of AI, with DSPs becoming flooded with music created by generative AI companies.